Hedging its Bets: The UK and the Politics of European Financial Services Regulation

Some argue that European financial services regulation is witnessing a shift from a ‘market-making’ to a ‘market-shaping’ paradigm after the global financial crisis. This so-called ‘new’ political economy explanation stresses the role of ideas to understand this change. We consider this claim by providing an in-depth examination of recent European hedge fund legislation from the perspective of two key ‘market-making’ coalition members: the UK government and the hedge fund industry. We accept that the legislation represents a set-back for the ‘market-makers’ but question whether it represents a victory for the ‘market-shapers’. Moreover, we cast doubt on the causal role of ideas, calling for a domestic politics approach.     

Can Micro Health Insurance Reduce Poverty? Evidence From Bangladesh

This article examines the impact of micro health insurance on poverty reduction in rural areas of Bangladesh. The research is based on household‐level primary data collected from the operating areas of the Grameen Bank during 2006. A number of outcome measures are considered; these include household income, stability of household income via food sufficiency and ownership of nonland assets, and the probability of being above or below the poverty line. The results show that micro health insurance has a positive association with all of these indicators, and this is statistically significant and quantitatively important for food sufficiency.     

REIT Stock Market Volatility and Expected Returns

We study the relation between REIT stock volatility and future returns, focusing particularly on the financial crisis period of 2007–2009. There is ongoing debate about whether stock volatility can forecast future returns. Our findings suggest that REIT‐implied volatility is negatively related to contemporaneous stock returns; there is a significant positive relationship between REIT implied volatility and future stock volatility; and there is a significant negative relation between REIT implied volatility and future stock returns. Lastly, we develop trading rules based on REIT implied volatility to test whether these relationships are exploitable. The result suggests a potentially profitable trading strategy.     

A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle

We show that there is a difficulty in the original Goodwin model which is also found in some more recent applications. In it both the labour share and the proportion employed can exceed unity, properties which are untenable. However, we show that the underlying dynamic structure of the model can be reformulated to ensure that these variables cannot exceed unity. An illustrative example extends the original model, and we argue it is both plausible and satisfies the necessary unit box restrictions.